Affluent MA School Districts See Lasting Enrollment Decline

Public school enrollment in affluent Massachusetts districts has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with areas like Brookline experiencing significant shortfalls. A recent study from Boston University highlights that the state's wealthiest 20% of school districts have lost more students than the other 80% combined, indicating a lasting shift in educational choices among families with more resources.

In Brookline, enrollment remains 13% lower than what pre-pandemic trends predicted, a deficit of nearly 1,000 students. This pattern reflects a broader, decade-long trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, where families are increasingly opting for private schools, microschools, and other alternatives.

Pandemic Accelerates a Decade-Long Trend

While public school districts across the country saw enrollment numbers fluctuate during the COVID-19 pandemic, new research indicates that the impact has been uneven. The study, conducted by Boston University education policy researchers Abigail Francis and Joshua Goodman, reveals a stark contrast between high-income and lower-income districts in Massachusetts.

Their findings show that the wealthiest districts have not bounced back as expected. By fall 2024, Brookline’s enrollment was projected to be 13% lower than its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. This contrasts with other affluent districts like Cambridge and Newton, which saw shortfalls of 7% and 8.8%, respectively.

According to Francis, while there has been some rebound, PSB enrollment “is still not where the pre-trend said it would have been.” The data suggests that families who left the public system during the pandemic have not returned in the numbers initially anticipated.

Why Families Are Choosing Alternatives

The pandemic served as a catalyst for many parents to explore educational options they might not have previously considered. For some, the initial move was driven by the need for in-person instruction when public schools were remote.

Danna Perry, a Brookline School Committee member, moved her middle-school daughter to a private Catholic school in the fall of 2020. “Her pediatrician strongly recommended that we move her back into a live classroom,” Perry explained, noting it was “the best way for her to learn.” Her daughter has since continued in private high school.

Academic and Social Concerns

For other families, the decision was rooted in pre-existing concerns about the public school environment. One set of parents, who wished to remain anonymous, said they were already “generally disappointed with the level of academics” before the pandemic. They had been supplementing their son's education with outside tutoring.

“The pandemic signified a tipping point,” they stated, explaining their decision to move their son from a public school to a microschool in January 2022.

The BU researchers have also examined evidence suggesting that student behavioral issues, particularly in grades 5-8, have persisted and even worsened since the pandemic. These concerns, combined with rising chronic absenteeism, may shape “parents’ perceptions of what’s going on in the schools,” Francis said.

The Growing Appeal of Private Education

The trend is reflected in the numbers: approximately 18% of school-aged children in Brookline now attend private schools, an increase from about 13% in 2015. The Greater Boston area offers a wide array of private options that attract these families.

Ioannis Asikis, a recent graduate of Boston University Academy (BUA), had planned to attend Brookline High School. However, the pandemic prompted him to consider BUA, a private high school on the BU campus. He was drawn to the small community, curricular freedom, and the school's swift pivot to effective remote learning.

Asikis, who served as a student representative on the Massachusetts Board of Elementary & Secondary Education, believes private schools are often perceived as offering a competitive advantage.

• Smaller class sizes: Allowing for more individualized attention.
• Specialized programs: Such as the ability to take university-level courses.
• Personalized college counseling: A key factor for families focused on college outcomes.

“That perception feels especially important today, as we’re seeing selective college admission processes face increased scrutiny,” Asikis added, referencing the return of standardized testing requirements and changes to affirmative action.

District Response and Broader Factors

School officials acknowledge the trend but offer different perspectives. School Committee member Sarah Moghtader suggested that family financial health is a stronger predictor of school choice than satisfaction with public schools. She pointed to an external forecast predicting a 7.7% increase in student enrollment between 2028 and 2034.

However, others emphasize the district's need to be responsive. “If stakeholders and taxpayers... are saying that they’re unsatisfied, the responsibility of the district is to say, ‘That’s really important,’” noted School Committee member Carolyn Thall.

Several other factors contribute to the enrollment volatility:

1. High Cost of Living: Massachusetts's high cost of living is driving some families out of the state entirely.
2. Falling Birth Rates: In 2023, Brookline's fertility rate was 1.07, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a population.
3. International Population: The town has a transient population of international families connected to local universities and industries, leading to natural student turnover.

The BU researchers hope their data will help districts and parents communicate more effectively. Understanding the multifaceted reasons behind family decisions—from academic concerns to social environment—is the first step toward addressing the enrollment challenge.