A new analysis of university admissions data reveals a significant drop in the enrollment of Black and Latino students at the most selective U.S. colleges following the 2023 Supreme Court decision to end affirmative action. The findings, based on 2024 federal enrollment numbers, point to a major shift in the demographic landscape of higher education.
Key Takeaways
- Black student enrollment at the top 50 most selective schools decreased by 27 percent.
- Latino student enrollment at the same institutions fell by 10 percent.
- White and Asian American student enrollment numbers remained largely unchanged across these schools.
- The data suggests a "cascade effect," with qualified minority students enrolling in less selective universities.
- This shift could lead to greater racial and ethnic income disparities in the long term.
A Sharp Decline in Diversity
The first admissions cycle since the Supreme Court's ruling against race-conscious admissions has produced stark results. A report from Class Action, a nonprofit focused on educational equity, shows a dramatic change in the composition of freshman classes at America's elite institutions.
The analysis of federal data from 2024 indicates that enrollment for Black students at the 50 most selective universities plummeted by 27 percent. Latino student enrollment also saw a substantial decline, dropping by 10 percent. The impact was even more pronounced at Ivy Plus schools, a group including the eight Ivy League institutions plus several other top-tier universities.
By the Numbers
In the first post-affirmative action admissions cycle at the top 50 most selective U.S. universities:
- Black Student Enrollment: Down 27%
- Latino Student Enrollment: Down 10%
- White & Asian American Enrollment: Remained stable, with a slight increase for Asian Americans at Ivy Plus schools.
The report states, "Both the number and the percentage of underrepresented students of color significantly declined at highly selective institutions and even more sharply at Ivy Plus schools. The largest declines were among Black students." In contrast, enrollment figures for White and Asian American students held steady at most top schools.
Understanding the 'Cascade Effect'
Researchers point to a phenomenon known as the "cascade effect" to explain these new enrollment patterns. This effect describes a chain reaction where highly qualified students from underrepresented groups, who would have likely been admitted to the most selective schools before the ruling, are now enrolling in less selective institutions.
This initial shift then displaces other students at those second-tier schools, pushing them to enroll in even less selective colleges and universities. The result is a downward ripple through the entire higher education system.
“These enrollment patterns reflect a phenomenon known as a cascade effect, in which highly qualified students of color who would have been much more likely to be admitted to highly selective institutions pre-SFFA [Students for Fair Admissions] ended up enrolling in less selective institutions, thus displacing students there and pushing them to less selective institutions.”
This redistribution of students is not random. The analysis shows that Black freshman enrollment has shifted toward institutions with lower average graduation rates and poorer post-graduation earnings outcomes. This trend has raised serious concerns among education experts and equity advocates.
A Shift to State Universities
While elite private universities saw a drop in minority enrollment, some public state universities experienced the opposite. For example, the University of Mississippi reported a 50 percent increase in its Black freshman enrollment. This surge is a clear indicator of the cascade effect in action, as students who might have otherwise attended an Ivy League or similarly ranked school are now choosing flagship state universities.
This shift demonstrates that the pool of qualified minority applicants has not shrunk. Instead, their educational pathways are being rerouted away from the institutions that have historically served as gateways to the highest echelons of business, law, and politics.
Long-Term Economic and Social Concerns
The authors of the Class Action report express alarm about the potential long-term consequences of this trend. The concentration of students of color in institutions with fewer resources and lower earning potential for graduates could exacerbate existing economic disparities.
The Supreme Court's Decision
In June 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard case that race could no longer be considered a factor in college admissions. The decision effectively ended decades of affirmative action policies designed to increase diversity on college campuses.
Selective universities often provide unparalleled access to networks, resources, and career opportunities. A decline in minority representation at these schools could mean fewer Black and Latino leaders in critical sectors of the economy and government in the future.
As universities continue to navigate this new legal landscape, the focus will be on developing alternative strategies to foster diversity. However, this initial data from the first full admissions cycle suggests that maintaining the levels of racial and ethnic diversity seen in previous years will be a significant challenge without the tool of race-conscious admissions.
The findings from this report are likely to fuel ongoing debates about fairness, merit, and the role of higher education in promoting social mobility in the United States. The full impact of the Supreme Court's decision will unfold over several years, but these early numbers paint a concerning picture for educational equity.
