Canada is set to approve the lowest number of new international student permits in a decade, with projections for 2025 falling even below levels seen during the global pandemic. New analysis indicates that federal government caps on post-secondary admissions are creating an unprecedented level of competition for prospective students hoping to study in the country.
Data shows that Canada is on track to approve just 80,000 new study permits in 2025. This figure represents a staggering 62% decrease from 2024 and signals a significant shift in the landscape of international education in Canada.
Key Takeaways
- New international student permit approvals in Canada are projected to fall to 80,000 in 2025, a 10-year low.
- This represents a 62% drop from 2024 and is lower than approvals during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Colleges are the most affected, with fewer than 30,000 new approvals expected nationwide for their programs.
- If trends continue, Canada's total international student population could decrease by as much as 50% by 2026.
An Unprecedented Drop in Approvals
The decline in study permit approvals is a direct consequence of new federal policies aimed at managing the intake of international students. The projected 80,000 new permits for 2025 is a sharp contrast to previous years and highlights a deliberate move to curtail numbers.
To put this into perspective, Canada approved approximately 92,000 new permits in 2020, at the height of pandemic-related travel restrictions and lockdowns. The anticipated figures for next year suggest an even more restrictive environment for new applicants than was experienced during that global crisis.
By the Numbers: A Sharp Decline
- 2025 Projection: 80,000 new permits
- Year-over-Year Drop: 62% decrease from 2024
- Pandemic Comparison: Lower than the 92,000 permits approved in 2020
This sharp reduction is expected to make 2025 one of the most competitive years on record for international students. With fewer available spots, the pressure on applicants to secure a place in a Canadian institution will intensify dramatically.
Colleges Bear the Brunt of the Caps
While the entire post-secondary sector is affected, public and private colleges are experiencing the most significant impact. Projections indicate that fewer than 30,000 new study permits will be approved for college programs across Canada next year.
This has led to a major shift in the composition of study permits being issued. For the first time, students already residing in Canada are expected to receive nearly two-thirds of all post-secondary permits issued this year. This is because permit extensions for current students are now dominating the approval process, leaving a much smaller pool for new arrivals.
Universities Show Modest Recovery
In contrast, universities are showing some signs of recovery, though opportunities remain limited. Approval rates for university-bound students reportedly rose from 30% in May to 55% in August. However, this recovery does not offset the massive cuts seen in the college sector, which has historically attracted a large volume of international students.
The Shift from New to Existing Students
The current policy landscape prioritizes students who are already in the Canadian system. With extensions now accounting for nearly 80% of all college study permits, the pipeline for new talent from abroad is narrowing significantly. This trend is reshaping the international student body, favoring continuation over new enrollment.
Long-Term Implications for Canada
The sustained reduction in new students could have profound long-term consequences. As graduating cohorts leave the country, they are not being replaced at the same rate. If these trends persist, forecasts suggest Canada's total international student population could shrink by up to 50% by the year 2026.
Such a decline could impact not only the financial health of educational institutions but also local economies that rely on student spending. Furthermore, it could affect Canada's future labor pool, as many international students transition to permanent residency after graduation.
"While short-term challenges persist, student confidence in Canada’s long-term value remains remarkably strong." - ApplyBoard Report
The report also highlighted concerns about campus diversity. Students from key source countries such as India, the Philippines, and several African nations are facing some of the lowest approval rates. This could lead to a less diverse student body across Canadian campuses, undermining the multicultural environment that many institutions pride themselves on.
Student Aspirations Remain High
Despite the increasingly competitive and uncertain environment, Canada remains a highly sought-after destination for international education. A recent survey accompanying the data revealed that 95% of international students still wish to study in Canada.
The primary reasons cited for this continued interest include:
- High academic standards at Canadian institutions.
- Opportunities for post-graduation work permits.
- The country's reputation as a safe and multicultural society.
This enduring appeal suggests that while government policies are creating significant hurdles, the fundamental attraction of a Canadian education remains intact. The challenge for students now is navigating a system with far fewer entry points than in the past. The competition for a limited number of permits means that only the most prepared applicants will succeed in the coming years.