Democrat Abigail Spanberger currently holds a significant 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia gubernatorial election, according to the latest Roanoke College Poll. The survey, conducted between October 22 and October 27, 2025, shows Spanberger with 51% support compared to Earle-Sears' 41% among likely voters. Only 4% of voters remain undecided as the election approaches.
Key Takeaways
- Abigail Spanberger holds a 10-point lead in the governor's race.
- Threats to democracy and inflation are top voter concerns.
- Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races are much closer.
- Jay Jones' past texts are impacting the Attorney General race.
Gubernatorial Race Details
The Roanoke College Poll's findings suggest a clear advantage for Spanberger. Her 51% support indicates strong backing, while Earle-Sears faces an uphill battle to close the 10-point gap. A very small percentage of likely voters, just 4%, have yet to make up their minds, meaning most voters have already decided their preference for governor.
This poll interviewed 1,041 likely voters across Virginia. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.05%. This margin means the actual results could vary slightly, but Spanberger's lead remains statistically significant.
Poll Snapshot
- Spanberger: 51%
- Earle-Sears: 41%
- Undecided: 4%
- Other: 1%
Other Key Statewide Races
While the governor's race shows a distinct leader, the contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general are much tighter. Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by a narrow margin of 42% to 40% in the lieutenant governor's race. This difference falls within the poll's margin of error, indicating a highly competitive contest.
In the race for attorney general, Republican incumbent Jason Miyares holds a slight lead over Democrat Jay Jones, with 46% to 38%. This race, while also close, shows Miyares with a more defined advantage than Reid in the lieutenant governor's contest.
Voter Enthusiasm and Top Issues
Voter enthusiasm for the upcoming election is notably high. Two-thirds, or 67%, of likely voters reported being very enthusiastic about casting their ballot. Another 23% described themselves as somewhat enthusiastic. This suggests a strong turnout is expected across the state.
When asked about the most important issues influencing their vote, respondents highlighted two primary concerns. Threats to democracy were cited by 29% of voters, making it the top issue. Inflation followed closely, identified by 24% of respondents as their main concern. Other issues, such as immigration (12%), taxes (5%), abortion (5%), and crime (5%), garnered less attention but remain relevant to a segment of the electorate.
"Like most elections, this one will be determined by voter turnout and how independents vote," said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. "While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so."
Approval Ratings and Candidate Perception
President Donald Trump's job approval rating in Virginia stands at 40%, showing little change from the previous Roanoke College Poll conducted in August. Governor Glenn Youngkin's approval rating remains at 50%, consistent with August figures, though his disapproval rating has decreased by 7 percentage points.
For the gubernatorial candidates themselves, Spanberger's favorability has seen an increase, with 47% viewing her favorably and 42% unfavorably. Earle-Sears also saw an increase in both favorable (38%) and unfavorable (45%) ratings since August, indicating more voters are forming opinions about her.
About the Poll
The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College conducted the survey. Data collection was handled by the Siena Research Institute at Siena University. Interviews were conducted via telephone calls and text messages to registered voters in Virginia, screened for likelihood to vote.
Impact of Jay Jones' Past Texts
A significant majority of likely voters, 80%, reported being aware of texts sent by Attorney General candidate Jay Jones in 2022. These texts, which contained controversial remarks about then-House of Delegates Speaker Todd Gilbert, have become a focal point in the attorney general's race.
The poll explored the impact of this information on voters who had already cast their ballots for Jones. Of these early voters, 87% stated they would have voted for Jones regardless of the texts. Only 1% indicated they would have switched their vote to Miyares. Another 5% said they would not have voted in that specific election, and 8% chose not to answer.
Dr. Wilson commented on the attorney general's race, noting, "While Jones has clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares, suggesting they may either ‘come home’ in the end or simply not vote in that race." He also highlighted that Miyares now holds a narrow lead among independents, a concerning trend for Jones.
Jones' Texts Awareness
- 80% of likely voters aware of texts.
- Of early Jones voters, 87% would still vote for him.
- 1% of early Jones voters would switch to Miyares.
Understanding the Methodology
The survey utilized a mixed-mode approach for data collection. Out of 1,041 completed interviews, 97 (9%) were landline calls, 442 (43%) were cellphone calls, and 502 (48%) were completed via text-to-web. This blend ensures a broad reach among Virginia's registered voters.
Quality control measures for online completions included attention checks, monitoring survey completion time, and a manual review of all data. The proprietary panel also incorporated safeguards against bot attacks, duplicate responses, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses, ensuring data integrity.
The data underwent statistical weighting to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll demographics for gender, race, age, education, and political party. This weighting helps ensure the poll's results accurately reflect the Virginia electorate.
